Markets & rates
Every hypothesis Whalur tests runs inside a market that was doing something at the time — cheap money or expensive money, a calm tape or a frightened one. These are the sixteen series the research reads as that context: index futures, currencies, Treasury yields, the Fed funds rate and the VIX. The strip below is where each one stands today, and how far it has travelled in a day and in a month.
Where things stand
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How they have travelled
Futures and currencies are indexed to 100 on the first trading day of the range you pick, because those instruments do not share a scale — gold is quoted in hundreds of dollars, the S&P contract in thousands, EUR/USD near one. Indexing puts them on the same axis and answers the question the page is for: which of them moved, and when. Yields and the Fed funds rate are shown as they are read, in percent. Hover any plot for the exact figure on a given day.
On the yields panel the shaded stretches are the months the 10-year yield sat below the 2-year — an inverted curve, the market pricing cuts ahead. The last panel puts the policy rate (left axis, percent) next to the VIX (right axis, points): two different units, one question — was money expensive while the tape was frightened?
What the universe moves with
Every symbol Whalur researches, measured against every series above. Green means the symbol and the series have been moving together; red means they have been moving against each other; a pale cell means no relationship worth the name. The 60-day window asks whether a relationship is holding right now, the 252-day window whether it is a relationship at all. Hover a cell for the exact correlation, its beta and the day it was measured — and click one to see how that pair's correlation has travelled since 2020.
Levels come straight from the daily series the research is scored against — nothing here is a forecast, and nothing here is financial advice. Yields and the Fed funds rate move in basis points (a hundredth of a percent); everything else is shown as a percentage change. See the guide for how the research uses them.