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Market research & signal discovery
Trade the mechanism, not the narrative.
Whalur hunts for repeatable, statistically significant market mechanisms —
behaviors that produce positive expected value across many securities and
market conditions — and turns them into ranked, explainable signals.
Every signal is scored by historical expected value — not win rate, hype, or gut feel.
Thousands of hypothesis variations tested against historical replays before anything goes live.
Only mechanisms that survive robustness testing across regimes, sectors, and volatility ever reach you.
Plans from $79.99/month. Whale Watch, Whale Moves and Markets are free to read.
The engine room
Nine research engines behind every signal.
Whalur isn't a list of hot tips. Every idea is tested on years of real
market history, then judged on recent data it has never seen, and almost
everything gets thrown out. What survives is what you see.
25M+simulated trades on real market history
9,000+trading ideas written and tested
97%of new ideas thrown out for failing on unseen data
11+ yrsof daily prices across 80+ stocks & ETFs
AI Idea Generator
Writes brand-new trading ideas every night.
Discovery Engine
Invents and tests ideas around the clock, and keeps only the ones that still work on data they've never seen.
Backtest Sweeper
Re-tests every idea against every stock, every night.
Rabbit Hole Digger
An AI analyst that digs into the best ideas to find exactly where they work.
Regime Analyzer
Checks how every idea behaves in calm markets and fearful ones.
Live Monitor
Fires a whale move the moment a tested idea triggers on a real stock.
Recent Edge Scanner
Re-tests every idea on the last 12 months, so you see what's working right now.
Prediction Engine
Calls the week ahead for every stock, then grades itself against what actually happened.
Hunch Tester New
Type any market hunch in plain words and get an honest verdict: real, maybe, or luck.
Got a hunch about the market? Test it in a minute.
Type it in plain words: “when oil crashes, banks rally the next week.”
Our AI analyst turns it into one fair test, locks the rules before it looks,
runs it on 25 years of real prices (back to 2000), then checks it again on 2025–26 data it never used.
Most hunches turn out to be luck. Now you'll know which ones aren't.
No cherry-picking. The test is set before any results exist.
The luck check. Every result is compared with randomly timed trades.
A second opinion from the future. It must hold on data it never saw.
“When the 2-year yield jumps in a week, bank stocks rise the following week.”no effect
What's inside
See the whales for free. Trade them with a plan.
A whale move is our name for a signal: big investors ("whales" — funds and institutions) can't buy or sell without leaving footprints, like a burst of trading volume or a sharp push in price, and Whalur's tested strategies watch for those footprints and for market conditions such as VIX fear or swings in rates and oil. When one fires on a stock, that's a whale move.
Whale Watch, Whale Moves and Markets are open to everyone. A plan unlocks
the research engine behind them — plans start at $79.99 a month.
Free to read
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Whale Watch
Every morning, the three highest-conviction whale moves the monitor caught overnight — what moved, how big, and Whalur's verdict.
Run any hypothesis across the whole universe and see expected value per trade, consistency and trade frequency — then the ranked table of what actually works.
You've felt it: a setup that worked twice becomes a strategy, a pundit's
conviction becomes your position, and a backtest tuned to one lucky year
becomes your account's worst month.
Noise dressed as signal
News, chart patterns, and hot takes feel actionable, but few survive honest measurement. Trading them is paying for randomness.
Overfit backtests
A strategy optimized on one stock in one regime collapses the moment conditions change. Curve-fitting isn't research — it's rehearsal for a loss.
Win rate worship
A 70% win rate with ugly losers still bleeds money. The only number that compounds in your favor is expected value — and almost nobody measures it.
The solution
Whalur asks a better question.
Not “what stock should I buy?” but “what measurable market behavior is
occurring right now, and what has history demonstrated is the
highest-expected-value response?”
Mechanism discovery
A hypothesis engine generates and evaluates thousands of parameterized strategy variations — order-flow continuation, exhaustion, liquidity imbalance, mean reversion, and more — against historical market replays.
Robustness before deployment
Candidate mechanisms must hold up across bull and bear markets, sectors, market caps, volatility regimes, and execution-cost assumptions. Whatever fails is discarded — before it costs anyone money.
Ranked, explainable signals
Live signals arrive with a confidence score, the historical EV of similar setups, and the reasoning behind them — so you always know why, not just what.
How it works
From raw market behavior to a signal you can trust.
Observe
Whalur continuously measures a curated research universe of ~60 representative stocks: relative volume, VWAP distance, liquidity, persistence, volatility, and dozens of other reusable features.
Hypothesize & test
The hypothesis engine runs each candidate mechanism through historical replays — long and short, multiple entries and exits, position-management variants — and measures expected value, not anecdotes.
Stress
Survivors are re-tested across market cycles, sectors, capitalizations, and cost assumptions. Only mechanisms that stay positive everywhere advance to live monitoring.
Signal & learn
Validated mechanisms are monitored in real time. Every alert is scored, explained, archived, and fed back into research — so the system gets sharper with every trade it observes.
Built like research, not like a tip sheet
Statistical evidence over intuition. Always.
Whalur's guiding principles are non-negotiable: expected value over win
rate, robustness over optimization, repeatability over isolated success,
and universal mechanisms over ticker-specific folklore.
“Rather than asking what stock to buy, we ask what measurable behavior is happening right now — and what history says is the highest-EV response.”
1,000shypothesis variations evaluated per mechanism
~60stocks in the initial research universe
100%of live signals archived for future research
—confirmed on unseen data
Our promise: no signal ships until its mechanism has survived robustness
testing — and every live signal is tracked against its historical
expectations, in the open, inside your dashboard.
Each house book opens and closes positions from live signals using the
hypothesis's own exit rules. Every number is measured against SPY over
the same days.
Paper trading: simulated fills at the signal day's close, 5 bps cost per side, no real money.
No. Whalur is a research platform that discovers and validates market mechanisms. When those mechanisms fire in live markets, you get ranked, explained signals — the evidence, not just a ticker.
What does “expected value over win rate” actually mean?
A strategy that wins 40% of the time can be highly profitable if winners outweigh losers. Whalur measures the average outcome per trade across many samples — the number that actually compounds — instead of chasing high win rates that hide fat losses.
What's a whale move?
A whale move is our name for a signal: big investors ("whales" — funds and institutions) can't buy or sell without leaving footprints, like a burst of trading volume or a sharp push in price, and Whalur's tested strategies watch for those footprints and for market conditions such as VIX fear or swings in rates and oil. When one fires on a stock, that's a whale move. Every whale move is published on the free Whale moves page, and the three most confident each day make up the Whale Watch email.
Does Whalur trade for me?
The roadmap includes Alpaca integration for paper trading and automated execution with position sizing and risk controls. Execution always remains driven by validated research — never discretionary calls.
What does it cost?
Whale Watch, Whale moves and Markets are free to read. Full access is a plan: Basic $79.99/month, Premium $149.99/month (unlimited AI), or Premium + Wallet $199.99/month (adds paper-trading wallets). See pricing.
Is this financial advice?
No. Whalur provides research and statistical measurements of market behavior. All trading involves risk, and you are responsible for your own decisions.
Published in the open
Every signal we detect is written up and published the same second.
The asset, the footprint that gave the whale away, the size of the
move, the timestamp and a plain-English read of what it means — public,
for anyone, no editor in the loop. The exact entry, stop and target are
the part that comes with an account.
One email a day. The three highest-conviction whale moves the monitor
detected, what Whalur's call on each one is, and a link straight to
the full entry, stop and target. Three moves and the calls behind
them — nothing else.
